Cones and Uncertainties

Ike is on his way and we are in the (cue ominous music) Cone of Uncertainty!!!!!!

I think this is a crazy name for the situation in which your house may or may not be battered by wind, rain, tornadoes, and storm surge, but I do not have a better label. The problem with uncertainty is that it is… uncertain. Outcomes are unpredictable.

You may remember, dear readers, that I live with two boys. One young and useless, except for his smiles, and one old and an engineer. This means all planning happens in my brain because to an engineer, uncertain is not certain, and until the formula equals out on both sides, i.e. Our City = Mandatory Evacuation, there is no planning to be done.

It makes me wish weather could me measured in formulas. At least then Mr. Rochester would be a little more wary of the storm. I myself only want to be prepared. I grew up in Houston and therefore have respect for hurricanes, having rode some out hunkered down in a bathroom, but I do not worry much. You can only prepare as you are able and then pray for the rest.

It occurs to me that many things in life are uncertain. There is only so much preparedness that can occur when your cone of uncertainty is so large. Whether you are expanding your family, hiring a new employee, launching a program or a website, or starting a new job. There is always a large amount of unknowns and it is how we deal with the unknown that shows our core.

I think it may help to know what our cones of uncertainty cover. In my life, cones of uncertainty cover the next 3 days (because Ike still has some directions to choose), how my now part-time writing and professional obligations fit into my new full time job of being a Mom, and if I will ever be able to sleep all the way through the night again. Ever. I would settle for 4-5 hours at a stretch really. I am not too greedy. I can not really plan for these things. I can plan for different scenarios and pray and that is about it.

Being prepared is the only thing we can ever really do about uncertainty. Preparing without worry, that is. I try not to worry, though I am not always successful. I at least rationally know it is a useless endeavor. Just do what you need to and let things happen. In that vein, I have a full tank of gas, in case of evacuation, a freezer full of ice, in case of power outage, and other things in case we are hunkered down for a few days.

Are you prepared for your cones of uncertainty?

–Jane, watching the storm

One thought on “Cones and Uncertainties

  • September 10, 2008 at 3:47 pm
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    I think you are ignoring a powerful solution to dealing with uncertainty. Flexibility.

    My response to coming hurricanes is not because I am engineer, but because I am laid back. You like to worry, so the activity of preparation soothes your worried mind. I, on the other hand, have a grip on my priorities and I know what I am willing to part with and what my main objectives are in times of uncertainty. It allows me to go with the flow.

    This, of course, applies to topics unrelated to hurricanes. When facing uncertainty, ask yourself how flexible are you to dealing with unknowns. Make sure you know what is important and what is not.

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